Base Case Scenario — July 2026 through June 2027. Projections are grounded in 18 months of actual invoice history, with seasonal demand patterns validated across thousands of transactions. The strategic shift toward institutional and distributor accounts will progressively reduce low-season volatility.
Trailing 12-month actual
▲ +20.5% YoY growth
Capacity expansion + new channels
Analysis of 13,000+ invoices (Jan 2025–Jun 2026) confirms a clear March through November peak season. July and August are the strongest months (index 1.22–1.25). December through February represent the low season, primarily driven by reduced activity among foodservice and food truck customers. The strategic shift toward institutional accounts (distributors like PAK, Ben E. Keith, PFG) provides consistent volume year-round, progressively smoothing this curve.
Strategic Note: As we shift away from small foodservice customers (food trucks, taquerias) toward institutional distributors and retail programs, the December–February trough becomes progressively less pronounced. PFG, Ben E. Keith, and PAK Retail programs operate on annual contracts with consistent monthly pull.
Existing Business line is seasonally adjusted using validated 2025 historical indices.
| Month | Existing Business (Seasonal) |
Ben E. Keith | US Foods | PFG Program | PAK Retail | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 Peak | $852,000 | $20,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $0 | $887,000 |
| Aug 2026 Peak | $870,000 | $30,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $0 | $915,000 |
| Sep 2026 Peak | $783,000 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $10,000 | $848,000 |
| Oct 2026 Peak | $785,000 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $15,000 | $855,000 |
| Nov 2026 Peak | $740,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $870,000 |
| Dec 2026 | $628,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $75,000 | $25,000 | $793,000 |
| Jan 2027 | $618,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $25,000 | $808,000 |
| Feb 2027 | $631,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $35,000 | $831,000 |
| Mar 2027 | $720,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $50,000 | $935,000 |
| Apr 2027 | $601,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $60,000 | $826,000 |
| May 2027 | $697,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $60,000 | $922,000 |
| Jun 2027 Slow | $463,000 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $100,000 | $60,000 | $688,000 |
| Annual Total | $8,388,000 | $530,000 | $180,000 | $725,000 | $355,000 | $10,178,000 |
Driven by 18+ months of recurring, loyal customers. Key anchor accounts include: PAK Quality Foods ($1.39M), 812 Supermercado ($1.30M), La Plaza Meat Market ($1.01M), Veracruz Group ($1.37M total, 9 locations), One Taco Group ($1.29M total, 9 locations), and La Mexicana Elroy ($580K).
$8.39M
Sliced Shoulder Clod Program — ramp begins Q4 2026. Target volume: 5,000 lbs/week. Conservative adoption curve starting at $50K/month growing to $100K/month by Jan 2027.
$725,000
Relationship reactivated. Actual 2025 billing: $417K (38 invoices over 8 months). Gradual ramp from $20K/month to $50K/month through the year as volume grows.
$530,000
PAK Quality Foods is already our #1 customer by revenue ($1.39M). New retail-ready SKU programs add incremental volume on top of existing base, ramping from $10K to $60K/month.
$355,000
Expanding our SKU offering through existing US Foods relationship. Conservative steady-state at $15K/month — representing incremental volume only, not full channel potential.
$180,000
$12M – $15M Target