Base Case Scenario — June 2026 through May 2027. Derived from 10+ years and 13,000+ invoices of actual sales history. Seasonality indices are calibrated to the core business after isolating the April 2026 transition of 812 Supermercado and La Mexicana Elroy. New institutional channels layer on top of a growing, structurally improved base.
Included 812 Supermercado + La Mexicana
▲ +33.4% vs 2025 actuals
Capacity expansion + new channels
Validated from 10+ years of invoice data. 2025 Core shown adjusted by −$129K/month to isolate the base business after removing 812 Supermercado and La Mexicana Elroy (both lost April 2026). The Jun–Aug peak and Dec–Jan trough are structurally consistent across all years. The June 2026 baseline ($665K = May 2026 actual) is the starting point for the forward operating plan.
Starting from the clean June 2026 baseline ($665K = May 2026 actual), the existing business compounds at 3%/month — management's operating plan for the institutional account base. New channels layer on top. The result is a consistently ascending revenue curve: from $690K in June 2026 to $1.18M in May 2027 as institutional channels reach full run rate.
Existing Business compounds at 3%/month from the June 2026 baseline ($665K = May 2026 actuals). BEK starts mid-June. PFG ramps from August. PAK Retail starts July. US Foods grows steadily +15% over 12 months.
| Month | Existing Business (Core, Seasonal) |
Ben E. Keith | US Foods | PFG Program | PAK Retail | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 Peak | $665,000 | $10,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $0 | $690,000 |
| Jul 2026 Peak | $684,950 | $25,000 | $15,000 | $0 | $15,000 | $739,950 |
| Aug 2026 Peak | $705,499 | $30,000 | $15,000 | $25,000 | $20,000 | $795,499 |
| Sep 2026 Peak | $726,664 | $35,000 | $15,000 | $35,000 | $25,000 | $836,664 |
| Oct 2026 Peak | $748,464 | $40,000 | $15,000 | $50,000 | $30,000 | $883,464 |
| Nov 2026 Peak | $770,918 | $50,000 | $15,000 | $75,000 | $35,000 | $945,918 |
| Dec 2026 | $794,045 | $55,000 | $15,000 | $75,000 | $40,000 | $979,045 |
| Jan 2027 | $817,867 | $60,000 | $16,000 | $100,000 | $45,000 | $1,038,867 |
| Feb 2027 | $842,403 | $65,000 | $16,000 | $100,000 | $50,000 | $1,073,403 |
| Mar 2027 Peak | $867,675 | $70,000 | $17,000 | $100,000 | $55,000 | $1,109,675 |
| Apr 2027 Peak | $893,705 | $75,000 | $17,000 | $100,000 | $60,000 | $1,145,705 |
| May 2027 Peak | $920,516 | $75,000 | $17,000 | $100,000 | $65,000 | $1,177,516 |
| Annual Total | $9,437,706 | $590,000 | $188,000 | $760,000 | $440,000 | $11,415,706 |
Anchored by 10+ years of invoice history. June 2026 baseline = May 2026 actuals ($665K) — first clean month post-transition. Forward plan: 3% monthly compounding from the $665K base, reaching $921K by May 2027 (+38.5% over the year). Core accounts driving this growth: PAK Quality Foods, La Plaza Meat Market, Veracruz Group (9 locations), One Taco Group (9 locations), Licha's Cantina — all expanding organically as Colinas Foods replaces lost price-sensitive volume with higher-quality institutional relationships.
$9,437,706
Sliced Shoulder Clod Program — the single largest new revenue driver in the forecast. Ramp begins August 2026 ($25K), reaching full run-rate of $100K/month by January 2027. This channel alone adds nearly $760K of net new annual revenue, with upside potential as SKUs expand.
$760,000
Relationship reactivated. Half-month start in June 2026 ($10K), ramping to $75K/month by April 2027. Historical run rate validation: BEK billed $417K in just 8 months in 2025 ($52K/month avg), making the $75K ceiling achievable and conservative relative to potential.
$590,000
New retail-ready SKU programs on top of PAK's existing $1.39M institutional account. Starts July 2026 at $15K, ramping to $65K/month. PAK operates a meat market network across Texas, giving Colinas Foods effective multi-location retail distribution through one institutional relationship.
$440,000
Expanding SKU count through existing US Foods distribution relationship. Starts at $15K/month, grows to $17K/month by Q1 2027 — a conservative +15% growth rate. Significant upside available as additional products are listed and distribution geography expands.
$188,000
$12M – $15M Target